The peculiar state of Chinese economy Spent a week in China. Spoke to many friends who work in different parts of the Chinese economy: some executives in private companies who are listed in “OTC market” (新三板)、some investment professionals in wealth management companies、some medical staff, some manager of a movie theater chain and various everyday folks… Read More »
All the bulls on TV or news media have given up. In our recent quarterly commentary, we talked about the pricey situation with most of the index stocks in US equity markets. And in last week’s weekly post, we believe a correction or mild bear market might have been upon us. However, that’s not what… Read More »
Winter is coming. Because it is already late October. Or because most of the securities in US markets have been richly priced. We are not a market timer and our strategy has always been relatively independent from “the innings of the market cycles”. However, the key principle is always “to use the expected return as… Read More »
Fake news and real facts The past week we may have witnessed a major inflection point in financial markets. However, predict future is a darn hard task and we never imagined we have the high quality crystal ball to do that, so we won’t predict the future. We can examine some facts and some “fake… Read More »
Imagine that you face the following pair of concurrent decisions. First examine both decisions, then make your choices. Decision (i): Choose between A) Sure gain of $240 B) 25% chance to gain $1,000 and 75% chance to gain nothing Decision (ii): Choose between C) sure loss of $750 D) 75% chance to lose $1,000 and 25% chance to lose nothing What’s your decision?
Quarterly Commentary: S&P and Dow Jones Industrial had a strong quarter in Q3 2018, despite noises from trade frictions to Supreme Court Justice confirmations, from NAFTA negotiations to Turkey currency movements, from Robert Muller investigation to Fed rates hiking We still believe that the equities in major indices are richly priced, however that’s not to… Read More »
And that’s OK. This is exactly what the tariff should result to (at least part of the intention). The tariff episode is really a mean to an end to get to the final objective when countries will lower or eliminate the tariff all together. However, given the disparity of development in different nations, the “grand”… Read More »
In the past week, almost all major news outlets are publishing their “10 year” series: 10 years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, 10 years since the past financial crisis etc. It was probably nice to write those events into history textbooks and read about them once in a while. However, I have to remind… Read More »