Winter is coming. Because it is already late October. Or because most of the securities in US markets have been richly priced. We are not a market timer and our strategy has always been relatively independent from “the innings of the market cycles”. However, the key principle is always “to use the expected return as… Read More »
Fake news and real facts The past week we may have witnessed a major inflection point in financial markets. However, predict future is a darn hard task and we never imagined we have the high quality crystal ball to do that, so we won’t predict the future. We can examine some facts and some “fake… Read More »
Imagine that you face the following pair of concurrent decisions. First examine both decisions, then make your choices. Decision (i): Choose between A) Sure gain of $240 B) 25% chance to gain $1,000 and 75% chance to gain nothing Decision (ii): Choose between C) sure loss of $750 D) 75% chance to lose $1,000 and 25% chance to lose nothing What’s your decision?
Quarterly Commentary: S&P and Dow Jones Industrial had a strong quarter in Q3 2018, despite noises from trade frictions to Supreme Court Justice confirmations, from NAFTA negotiations to Turkey currency movements, from Robert Muller investigation to Fed rates hiking We still believe that the equities in major indices are richly priced, however that’s not to… Read More »
And that’s OK. This is exactly what the tariff should result to (at least part of the intention). The tariff episode is really a mean to an end to get to the final objective when countries will lower or eliminate the tariff all together. However, given the disparity of development in different nations, the “grand”… Read More »
In the past week, almost all major news outlets are publishing their “10 year” series: 10 years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, 10 years since the past financial crisis etc. It was probably nice to write those events into history textbooks and read about them once in a while. However, I have to remind… Read More »
Recently I read about an interesting experiment from the book “Thinking, Fast and Slow”. It is about the way our brain works and how to utilize more of your System 2 and constantly checking against the usual intuitions and stereotypes created by System 1. (System 1 is the part of the brain that is giving… Read More »
This site is typically about investments and things in economy. However, I have one and only one other personal hobby, which is in-line with his pursuit of craftsmanship in investing, – long distance running. As it is not a weekly or monthly event for me to run a full marathon race, please bear with me… Read More »