- S&P and Dow Jones Industrial resumed their relentless rally in Q1 2019, following the “speed bump” in December 2018. This again reminds everyone the importance of “not doing anything” in your portfolio and stay committed for the long term. I have heard many stories where someone sold all their retirement assets and put into money market funds. They had a mixed feeling about Q1 2019 rally for sure!
- We now believe that the equities in major indices are very richly priced and just entered the euphoria stage of the cycle. This part of the cycle can create some strong returns in short period of time, but usually will end with tears and significant pullbacks in equity prices.
- Entire US economy is noticeably slowing down, partly its own reason and partly due to Europe and China’s slowdown.
- We expect major indices to make mediocre returns over next 3 years comparing to cash.
- Yield curve inverted briefly in last weeks of March, and we take this very seriously (especially when more and more commentators in TV shows have shrugged off this change in yield curve).
- Our core portfolio has the benefit of continuous increase of cash (thank god and I am grateful). If we don’t buy any equities, our cash as % of portfolio will increase. We plan to maintain a higher % of cash in our portfolio from now on: 20%-30% up from 10%-15% previously
|FIC Core Portfolio ||S&P 500 Total Return |
|2019 Q1||1.38%1|| 13.65%2 |
|2019 YTD||1.38%1|| |
- FIC Core Portfolio is not a tax-exempt account however, the return posted here is before considering tax liability generated by any investment activities. Returns reported here are all time weighted returns, therefore are not reflecting effect of deposits and withdraws on total dollar profits
- S&P 500 Total Return is FIC Core Portfolio’s benchmark. The return can be found at: http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=spy
Note: Past performance is not an indicator for future performance. There is no guaranty that such performance will be achieved in future.
| FIC Core Portfolio||Cash and Cash Equivalent as % of Total NAV|
|As of 3/31/2019||17.54%|
|As of 12/31/2018||12.34% |
|As of 9/28/2018||11.50%|
|As of 6/30/2018||0.27%|
|As of 3/31/2018||8.14%|
|As of 12/31/2017||1.28%|
|As of 9/30/2017||5.41%|
|As of 6/30/2017||3.59%|