All the bulls on TV or news media have given up. In our recent quarterly commentary, we talked about the pricey situation with most of the index stocks in US equity markets. And in last week’s weekly post, we believe a correction or mild bear market might have been upon us. However, that’s not what… Read More »
Winter is coming. Because it is already late October. Or because most of the securities in US markets have been richly priced. We are not a market timer and our strategy has always been relatively independent from “the innings of the market cycles”. However, the key principle is always “to use the expected return as… Read More »
Fake news and real facts The past week we may have witnessed a major inflection point in financial markets. However, predict future is a darn hard task and we never imagined we have the high quality crystal ball to do that, so we won’t predict the future. We can examine some facts and some “fake… Read More »
Imagine that you face the following pair of concurrent decisions. First examine both decisions, then make your choices. Decision (i): Choose between A) Sure gain of $240 B) 25% chance to gain $1,000 and 75% chance to gain nothing Decision (ii): Choose between C) sure loss of $750 D) 75% chance to lose $1,000 and 25% chance to lose nothing What’s your decision?